A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
